Emmy Predictions, Because Why Not

Following the long tradition of writing things because why the fuck not here at Arbitrary Analysis, these are my Emmy predictions. The nominations will be announced Thursday, July 18th.

Outstanding Drama Series

608

This, the biggest category, is pretty much anyone’s guess at this point. Mad Men won four years in a row, until Homeland beat it last year. The second season of Homeland was more divisive and left many unfulfilled, and ditto for Mad Men‘s sixth season. Due to this, it’s more or less up in the air, but it definitely leaves things open for Breaking Bad to win for the first time. Either way, those three are locks to be nominated, as is Game of Thrones considering its solid standing as the cultural phenomenon of the moment. Beyond that, it gets hard to call. Downton Abbey, despite its comparably poorly received third season, is likely to take the fifth spot, but the last spot is totally up for grabs. I would put my money on Netflix’s House of Cards – everyone (at least on my Twitter feed) was talking about it and the new ways to do television (along with Hulu, Amazon, etc.), so that’s what I’m going with. Boardwalk Empire (which had its best season yet but the Emmys typically ignore it), The Good Wife (the only broadcast network show even in the running anymore) and newbie The Americans are all also contenders.

The Nominees

  • Mad Men
  • Breaking Bad
  • Homeland
  • Game of Thrones
  • Downton Abbey
  • House of Cards

Unless…

  • Boardwalk Empire
  • The Good Wife
  • The Americans

I Wish…

  • Hannibal
  • Justified

Outstanding Lead Actor – Drama Series

627

Another three-way battle between Homeland, Mad Men and Breaking Bad – or rather, Damian Lewis, Jon Hamm and Bryan Cranston, respectively. I can’t speak towards Cranston’s season five performance, but he appears to be the overall favourite to win. In any case, Kevin Spacey is a lock for House of Cards, but then it gets tricky. Matthew Rhys for The Americans and Steve Buscemi for Boardwalk Empire are good bets to round out the nominees, but there are several others on their heels.

The Nominees

  • Damian Lewis, Homeland
  • Jon Hamm, Mad Men
  • Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
  • Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
  • Matthew Rhys, The Americans
  • Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire

Unless…

  • Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
  • Timothy Olyphant, Justified
  • Michael C. Hall, Dexter
  • Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey

I Wish…

  • Hugh Dancy, Hannibal
  • Joel Kinnaman, The Killing

Outstanding Lead Actress – Drama Series

45

This category, unlike the other big drama awards, remains unchanged from last year. This is Claire Danes’ to lose, and she deserves another win for her brilliantly erratic performance on Homeland. Julianna Margulies and Michelle Dockery are good bets, and especially after this last season, as is Mad Men‘s Elisabeth Moss. I would then put Keri Russell in, and the last slot could go to anyone but there has been a surge of online support being thrown towards the underdog, Orphan Black‘s Tatiana Maslany. And I like an underdog. Kerry Washington is the dark horse here ready to spoil, though.

The Nominees

  • Claire Danes, Homeland
  • Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
  • Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
  • Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
  • Keri Russell, The Americans
  • Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black

Unless…

  • Robin Wright, House of Cards
  • Connie Britton, Nashville
  • Kerry Washington, Scandal

Outstanding Supporting Actor – Drama Series

67

This is an extremely packed category, one of the hardest to call. Peter Dinklage and Aaron Paul are really the only definite locks. Mandy Patinkin was, outrageously, snubbed last year, but his added presence to Homeland‘s second season should secure him a spot. Corey Stoll held his own against Kevin Spacey’s more showy performance on House of Cards, and  Sam Waterston was probably the most bearable person onscreen during The Newsroom. Most are giving the last spot to Jonathan Banks for Breaking Bad, but I’m going for Nikolaj Coster-Waldau for his standout role in the third season of Game of Thrones.

The Nominees

  • Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
  • Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
  • Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
  • Corey Stoll, House of Cards
  • Sam Waterston, The Newsroom
  • Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, Game of Thrones

Unless…

  • Jonathan Banks, Breaking Bad
  • Noah Emmerich, The Americans
  • John Slattery, Mad Men

I Wish…

  • Mads Mikkelsen, Hannibal
  • Alan Cumming, The Good Wife
  • Walton Goggins, Justified

Outstanding Supporting Actress – Drama Series

56

Just give the fucking thing to Maggie Smith already.

The Nominees

  • Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
  • Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
  • Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
  • Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
  • Monica Potter, Parenthood
  • Morena Baccarin, Homeland

Unless…

  • Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife
  • Kate Mara, House of Cards
  • Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey

I Wish…

  • Lena Headey, Game of Thrones
  • Jessica Pare, Mad Men

In a Just World…

  • Michelle Fairley, Game of Thrones

Outstanding Comedy Series

43

Even though no new comedies really managed to give any lasting effect, this category is still packed with worthy contenders. Modern Family is a sure thing if there ever was one, but I sincerely hope it doesn’t win again. Girls and Louie will be nominated but will not win. The Big Bang Theory will continue its general domination of our culture, and Veep may be beaten out by Arrested Development‘s Netflix experiment (or will it be ignored?). But 30 Rock will get its final hurrah with at least a nomination (and, if it were up to me, a win).

The Nominees

  • Modern Family
  • Girls
  • Louie
  • The Big Bang Theory
  • 30 Rock
  • Arrested Development

Unless…

  • Veep
  • Parks and Recreation
  • New Girl

I Wish…

  • Enlightened
  • Archer

Outstanding Lead Actor – Comedy Series

23

Despite his recent, er, publicity issues, Alec Baldwin is a lock for 30 Rock. Jim Parsons, duh. Louis C.K., of course. After that, well. We can assume Jon Cryer will be there, for whatever fucking reason. Following that, I’m going for Jason Bateman and (fingers crossed) Jake Johnson for his breakout year on New Girl. But Don Cheadle is likely to take Johnson’s place, for some shit called House of Lies? What even is that? Does anyone watch it?

The Nominees

  • Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
  • Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
  • Louis C.K., Louie
  • Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
  • Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
  • Jake Johnson, New Girl

Unless…

  • Don Cheadle, House of Lies (what)
  • Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
  • Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory

I Wish…

  • Adam Scott, Parks and Recreation (who is, weirdly, considered a lead)

Outstanding Lead Actress – Comedy Series

15

If there is any right left in this world, Laura Dern will get a nomination. She won’t win, that’s okay, I accept that. But a nomination. Please. Otherwise, this is Julia Louis-Dreyfus’ category. Her titular role on Veep is just the kind of thing Emmy voters love. And if Laura Dern can’t win, I would give it to Tina Fey – not only for a great performance on 30 Rock‘s final season, but also as testament to that show and to her for bringing it to us. But really, it would be okay if Amy Poehler won, too. Or Lena Dunham, my beloved Lena! Zooey? You can clap politely for one of these other women, but take solace in a job well done.

The Nominees

  • Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
  • Lena Dunham, Girls
  • Tina Fey, 30 Rock
  • Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
  • Laura Dern, Enlightened
  • Zooey Deschanel, New Girl

Unless…

  • Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
  • Melissa McCarthy, Mike and Molly 
  • Martha Plimpton, Raising Hope

I Wish…

  • Portia de Rossi, Arrested Development

Outstanding Supporting Actor – Comedy Series

12

I don’t fucking know which but someone from Modern Family is going to win, until everyone in the cast has at least two.

The Nominees

  • Ty Burrell, Modern Family
  • Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
  • Ed O’Neill, Modern Family
  • Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
  • Will Arnett, Arrested Development
  • Max Greenfield, New Girl

Unless…

  • Jeffrey Tambor, Arrested Development
  • Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live
  • Simon Helberg, The Big Bang Theory

I Wish…

  • Adam Driver, Girls
  • Nick Offerman, Parks and Recreation
  • Aziz Ansari, Parks and Recreation
  • Tony Hale, Veep/Arrested Development

Outstanding Supporting Actress – Comedy Series

11

Fucking Modern Family.

The Nominees

  • Julie Bowen, Modern Family
  • Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
  • Jessica Walter, Arrested Development
  • Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
  • Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
  • Allison Williams, Girls

Unless…

  • Kaley Cuoco, The Big Bang Theory
  • Merritt Weaver, Nurse Jackie
  • Betty White, Hot in Cleveland

I Wish…

  • Aubrey Plaza, Parks and Recreation
  • Anna Chlumsky, Veep

Oh and Behind the Candelabra gets ALLLLLLLLLL the miniseries/TV movie awards.

4

– Jake

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